It's hard to believe that it has already been one year since we started working on this project. Before I start with the review of what has been the first year in the life of the Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index, I'd like to thank all of the agencies that have participated throughout the year. It would not have been possible without you!

As you already know if you have read any of our previous reports, our monthly survey is comprised of six different questions:

1. Rate the recent change in your customers' marketing budgets (including ads) during this month compared to last month.

2. On a scale from 0 to 10, how have your customers' budgets for investments in ecommerce apps changed this month vs previous month?

3. On a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate the current price sensitivity of your customers towards spending on agency services?

4. How likely do you think it is that your customers could shift their strategy towards bringing marketing teams in-house versus outsourcing work to agencies in the upcoming months? (5 = no change).

5. What do you see your agency's revenue looking like 6 months from now?

6. On a scale of 0 to 10, how optimistic are you about the opportunities in ecommerce for the next 6 months?

Based on these responses, we analyze the evolution of each one of these different categories and we come up with our actual Confidence Index, which can have a minimum value of 0 (no confidence in the ecommerce industry by agencies) or 500 (absolute confidence in the industry).

This has been the evolution of this index through the year:

Let’s dive in.

Smarter Spending, Bigger Wins: How Brands and Agencies Prepared for a Record-Breaking BFCM

At the start of the year and right before summer, there were some challenges, but overall, marketing budgets have gone up steadily. Towards the end of the year, agencies worked closely with brands to prepare for the biggest Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) ever.

We’ve heard from our partner agencies that brands aren’t just spending more money—they’re spending it smarter. Many are focusing on things like using data to make better decisions, personalizing their messages, and connecting with customers across multiple channels.

By fine-tuning their marketing strategies, agencies are helping brands target the right audiences and test what works best. This is leading to better results for every dollar spent. Looking ahead, these smarter spending habits are expected to keep the positive trend going and help brands stay flexible and competitive in a crowded market.

Back in September, Stefan Chiriacescu from Ecommerce Today pointed out:

"Every September, we present our clients with a Q4 marketing strategy calendar, covering digital, content, email, and promotion recommendations for October through December. This year, we've noticed something different—more clients are engaged and responding earlier than ever. 

In fact, we’ve already started prepping Q4 strategies for a significant number of them. It’s encouraging to see this level of responsiveness, as it shows our clients are more confident and proactive about tackling the busiest season."  

Investments in ecommerce apps

Investments in eCommerce apps have been growing steadily throughout 2024. Even though there were small drops earlier in the year, the overall trend shows that brands are getting more confident about using eCommerce tools to improve their businesses.

In the second half of the year, the increase in spending became more noticeable, likely because brands were preparing for BFCM. However, one piece of feedback that agencies consistently shared throughout the year is that brands always had budget availability for apps that clearly demonstrate value or provide a strong ROI.

Back in March, ​​Paul Rosenwald from SeaMonster Studios described the brands’ mindset that ended up being shared by most of the other agencies throughout the year:

“Merchants are more leery of spending, but they are also open minded to optimization, testing, iterating and improving. I can't think of too many merchants we work with that have a specific budget for apps per year. I think the real question is, is the app gonna show ROI? Can we track that we will make more money or become more efficient if we implement it? Merchants are almost always budget conscious, but they are usually performance driven.”

From Price Wars to Proven Value: How Agencies Are Winning Back Trust in 2025

It has been a bit of a rollercoaster year for agencies. At a personal level, I feel like this question and the following one (in which we ask about whether they thought brands were more or less likely to outsource work to agencies vs hiring in house) was one of the most inconsistent replies from the whole questionnaire. 

At the same time, that inconsistency between one month and the next turned it into very insightful information: Brands have been adjusting their budgets to what they perceive in their markets (consumers) and what their most immediate forecasts looked like. The interesting thing is that these adjustments have been made almost instantaneously, reacting to very short term changes. 

One very good example of this happened in our November edition. ‍Jess Grossman‍, the CEO of InSocial described it perfectly:

“Surprisingly - and what I wouldn’t have expected a few months ago - we’ve seen a decrease in potential client and existing client price sensitivity. All throughout 2024, we were basically competing for the bottom in terms of who could offer the lowest service price. Now, however, I’ve noticed a shift in the sales conversations to focus more about results over cost.

‍As an agency, In Social has a ton of case studies, client testimonials, and all around data to back up that our service costs are worth the price (we end up paying for ourselves many times over), and have noticed that new clients are actually taking that information and listening to it, whereas, before, it was pretty much ignored because our pricing was perceived as too high compared to other “agencies.”

Jess also raised a very interesting point about the overall agency landscape as well:

“As many in Ecomm know, it doesn’t take much for someone to create an “agency,” so there are a lot of them out there acting as if they are one, even if they have no idea what they’re doing! It feels like, now, there is definitely a shift in brands wanting better service and results at a fair price, vs getting terrible service and results at a very cheap price. 

We’ve already landed a few new clients where we’ve taken over some of those “agencies” and paid for ourselves a few times over, already! - guess brands are finally sick of dealing with the consequences of their choices!”

The Agency vs. In-House Debate: Insights for Brands in 2025

If the previous chart was a rollercoaster, then for this one we have to put up one of these signs that say “must be this tall to ride”. 

This is one of the aspects that I’m the most interested in coming into 2025. Is this instability going to continue in the coming months? Are agencies going to continue having this feeling of potentially losing clients to in-house teams?

Back in July, Ben Zettler from Zettler Digital pointed out that “Agencies need to be prepared to clearly demonstrate their value in as efficient a manner as possible, now more than ever." 

At the same time, switching from working with an agency to in-house isn’t as easy as it looks, since it requires hiring, training and ramp-up time to see results. Bogdan Mihalache, the Founder & CEO Email Kong shared what his recommendations are based on the brand’s size:

“6-figure brands should manage internally to reduce costs and get higher margins - with the owner wearing many hats in the beginning. 

7-figure brands should always outsource to agencies. Agencies deliver more output with larger teams and optimized systems. 

To build a strong marketing team, brands should only go in-house at 8-figures."

Your own agency: 6-month outlook?

If there’s something I’ve learned about surveying agencies this year is that (in the words of one of these agency owners) they’re blindly optimistic about the future. 

Proof of this is the fact that despite what they’ve shared in the earlier questions (price sensitivity, potentially losing customers to in-house teams), they have faith in their own agencies’ long term success and growth in the coming months.

This question and the next one have always received the highest scores in the entire survey, reaching almost 8/10 in December. This speaks volumes to their ability to adjust to changes in the market and meet what their clients need. This shows they can bounce back and keep moving forward.

By improving their plans, using better tools, and building stronger relationships with their clients, agencies are making sure they stay important partners for brands. 

Ecommerce Industry: 6-month outlook? 

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The eCommerce agency world had a lot of ups and downs this year. Their confidence changed from month to month, but things got better as the year went on. By December, the confidence score was almost 8 out of 10, showing a big improvement.

This steady rise shows how flexible and strong both brands and agencies are. Over the year, they used smarter plans, better data, and more ways to connect with customers to stay ahead. The high score in December shows that businesses feel ready for a great year ahead, proving that eCommerce can do well even when things get tough.

Looking ahead

All I have left to say is that it has been a pleasure working with all of these agency owners, and I have personally learned a lot from them. I cannot wait to see what 2025 has to offer for the ecommerce industry.

From myself and the Referralcandy team, have an amazing christmas break and happy 2025!

Some of the agencies who have agreed to participate in the report throughout the year include: Online Origins, SeaMonster Studios, Swanky Agency, Thooja, Audacious Commerce, Ecommerce Today, For My People, RPF Agency, Pluro, Webcetera, SmartBug Media, Gloross, VT Labs, Motif, TatJones, Growth Heist, EastsideCo, SmartSites, MageMontreal, GetVisible, StubGroup, Thooja, Gudu, TenThousandFootView, Storetasker,SEOWorks, Zettler Digital, Saro Media, Velstar, Simplixi Innovations, Bakklog, EmailKong, Takeover Media, Medito Digital, Bedford Lane and CRO Media.

If you're an agency and would like to participate and receive the full report, you can email ReferralCandy's Partnerships Lead Raul Galera at raul [at] referralcandy.com

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