March 2025: Confidence Hits an All-Time Low

This month marks the lowest point ever recorded on the Ecommerce Agency Confidence Index. After a year of peaks and cautious optimism, March saw confidence drop sharply — likely a reaction to mounting global uncertainty, including Trump’s surprise tariff announcement mid-survey. 

While agency leaders remain resilient in their outlooks, this dip signals real unease in the market as we head into Q2.

Note: This month’s survey responses were collected during a turbulent time — specifically, right as former President Trump announced new tariff proposals. The announcement landed in the middle of our survey window, which may have influenced some of the outlooks on spending, strategy, and overall optimism heading into Q2.

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Marketing Budgets: Caution across the board

In March, most responses hovered right around the 5 mark — signaling that marketing budgets are largely holding steady. That said, there’s a small skew toward the 6–7 range, suggesting a gentle rebound from earlier Q1 belt-tightening. Brands aren’t exactly pouring money into growth, but there’s a sense that those who did cut budgets in January are now easing back into spend. The mood? Stable, with a slight lean toward scaling up — not swinging for the fences, but stepping back into the batter’s box.

“It’s official: we’re seeing our In Social clients freak out (and with no data yet to back those freak outs up). For example, we have 2 different clients whom, in the last 12 months, we’ve increased their bottom line by more than 60%, however any little dip in sales across a few days now has them questioning our entire strategy. It seems like common sense is going to go out the window while the economy is in freefall, and agencies are going to have to focus on calming the storm.

Not only are we going to have to combat consumer caution with smarter and more efficient advertising and marketing efforts, but we’re going to have to invest billable time into the management of our clients who are hypnotized by the recession that is coming.”

‍Jess Grossman, Founder & CEO, In Social

‍"We're confidently navigating the shifting landscape. While some clients may tighten their budgets, we see tremendous growth opportunities ahead. With the increasing trend towards outsourcing, our steadfast commitment to providing value will sustain our revenue and elevate our clients to new levels of success."

Ahmed Elghobashy, CEO at Simplix Innovations

"We've seen a steady increase in marketing budgets and eCommerce app spend over the past month, which tells us brands are gearing up for growth. While customers remain somewhat price sensitive, the shift towards outsourcing to agencies is a strong signal of trust in external expertise. At craftberry, we’re optimistic that there’s a clear appetite for smarter, faster, and more scalable solutions in the next 6 months."

Preslav Nikov, Founder & CEO, craftberry

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Ecommerce App Spend: Trimming the Fluff, Keeping the Core

Similar to marketing budgets, ecommerce app spend is sitting comfortably near the middle — mostly “no change,” with a modest tilt toward small increases. What we’re seeing is strategic consolidation. Brands are becoming more critical of their tech stacks: removing tools that don’t drive measurable value and reinvesting in those that do. It’s not about slashing spend, but about refining it. The result? App budgets that feel tighter — not because they’re shrinking, but because they’re being optimized.

“Not all Ecom businesses are really brands. They are finally waking up. Why burn cash on 20 apps when your best marketing is a happy customer? Brands slash budgets on gimmicky tools but double down on what actually moves the needle brand advocacy, referrals, and real community. 

For example ReferralCandy That’s money well spent. Performance ads? Necessary, but without brand marketing it's a tax. The shift is clear, brands are cutting the dead weight apps that don’t scale, tools that don’t retain, teams that don’t deliver. Instead, they’re investing in what compounds over time.”

Ash Ome, CEO & Creative Director @ MOTIF

Price Sensitivity: Holding Firm in the 6–9 Zone

March’s price sensitivity curve remains concentrated around 6 to 9, just like in February — a clear sign that most brands are still budget-conscious. They’re not necessarily spending less, but they’re being more thoughtful about what they spend on. This means agencies need to be laser-focused on proving value. Price sensitivity doesn’t mean brands are disengaged — it means they’re scrutinizing results. If you can demonstrate ROI, the budget is still there. If not, you’re likely on the chopping block.

“We're finding more and more clients interested in deep data analytics projects to better understand customer journeys and optimize revenue during these uncertain economic times.”

Paolo Vidali, CEO at HiddenGears

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In-House vs. Outsourcing: A Nudge Toward External Help

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This month’s outsourcing data shows a small but noticeable shift away from the “hire in-house” end of the scale, with more responses clustering between 5–7. That tells us brands are leaning slightly more toward agencies — especially for areas requiring speed, expertise, or specialized tech knowledge. The divide isn’t as sharp as last month, but the trend continues: brands are realizing that building everything internally isn’t always the most efficient path forward.

"We’re getting more and more questions from clients about how to optimize their websites for search engines powered by large language models (LLMs). As a result, we’re focusing on adding FAQs to relevant pages and enriching content in a more conversational, context-aware format. It’s not just about keywords anymore—it’s about helping AI understand and confidently surface your content."

Stefan Chiriacescu, CEO at eCommerce Today

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Revenue Outlook: Agencies Expecting a Lift

March’s revenue forecast is slightly more optimistic than February’s. We’re still seeing a healthy cluster around 6–8, which means most agencies expect to grow, but aren’t necessarily forecasting explosive gains. It’s a stable, upward-trending outlook — grounded in reality, but driven by growing demand for flexible, high-performance ecommerce support. Agencies that can adapt quickly to shifting brand priorities are set to benefit most.

"As brands demand faster, more flexible solutions, agencies that blend strategic insight with executional speed will continue to lead. At Medito, we’ve seen that confidence isn’t just about forecasts—it’s about adaptability."

Olivier Lambret, CEO at Medito, Shopify Expert Agency

Ecommerce Optimism: Confidence Persists, Even Amid Uncertainty

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March’s optimism scores once again lean toward the 6–9 range — but with a slightly wider spread compared to February. That broader distribution may reflect external events, like former President Trump’s newly announced tariff proposals, which landed right in the middle of our survey window. And yet, what stands out isn’t the dip — it’s the resilience.

Even with global trade tension looming, agency owners remain optimistic. It’s almost baffling how durable that confidence is. Maybe it’s experience talking, or maybe it’s just the nature of ecommerce: fast-moving, adaptable, and always hunting for the next edge. Whatever the reason, agencies are charging into Q2 with clear eyes and full calendars — even if the playbook is still being rewritten in real time.

“The trade war that the USA started with its allies has only begun to do the damage it will do. Here in Canada, buyer behaviour has fundamentally shifted; consumers actively seek other options outside the USA and are sharing their experience with the international community, which in turn are mimicking this behaviour. All this is to say, I'm expecting more uncertainty, not less in the coming months.”

Jody Edgar, CEO at Sunbowl

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